I don't understand your criticisms, in which you refer to the substitution of reasonable and probable so I thought I'd just ask you the following.
There's a 6 sided dice.
Its rigged to land on one of the numbers.
you have to guess whether it will land on 1 or a number higher than one
Do you think its more reasonable:
To guess that it will land on 1
or
To guess it will land on a number higher than one.
Imagine that I'm asking you and I don't know which number the dice is going to land on. if you guess right ill give you a dollar.
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